“Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree” (Kahneman and Klein)

confidence; bias of, over doubt; overconfidence; WYSIATI (what you see is all there is) and

confirmation bias

conjunction fallacy

conjunctive events, evaluation of

“Consequences of Erudite Vernacular Utilized Irrespective of Necessity: Problems with Using Long Words Needlessly” (Oppenheimer)

contiguity in time and place

control

cookie experiment

correlation; causation and; illusory; regression and; shared factors and

correlation coefficient

cost-benefit correlation

costs

creativity; associative memory and

credibility

Csikszentmihalyi, Mihaly

curriculum team

 

Damasio, Antonio

dating question

Dawes, Robyn

Day Reconstruction Method (DRM)

death: causes of; life stories and; organ donation and; reminders of

Deaton, Angus

decisions, decision making; broad framing in; and choice from description; and choice from experience; emotions and vividness in; expectation principle in; in gambles, see gambles; global impressions and; hindsight bias and; narrow framing in; optimistic bias in; planning fallacy and; poverty and; premortem and; reference points in; regret and; risk and, see risk assessment

decision utility

decision weights; overweighting; unlikely events and; in utility theory vs. prospect theory; vivid outcomes and; vivid probabilities and

decorrelated errors

default options

denominator neglect

depression

Detroit/Michigan problem

Diener, Ed

die roll problem

dinnerware problem

disclosures

disease threats

disgust

disjunctive events, evaluation of

disposition effect

DNA evidence

dolphins

Dosi, Giovanni

doubt; bias of confidence over; premortem and; suppression of

Duke University

Duluth, Minn., bridge in

duration neglect

duration weighting

 

 

earthquakes

eating

eBay

Econometrica

economics; behavioral; Chicago school of; neuroeconomics; preference reversals and; rational-agent model in

economic transactions, fairness in

Econs and Humans

Edge

Edgeworth, Francis

education

effectiveness of search sets

effort; least, law of; in self-control

ego depletion

electricity

electric shocks

emotional coherence, see halo effect emotional learning

emotions and mood: activities and; affect heuristic; availability biases and; in basic assessments; cognitive ease and; in decision making; in framing; mood heuristic for happiness; negative, measuring; and outcomes produced by action vs. inaction; paraplegics and; perception of; substitution of question on; in vivid outcomes; in vivid probabilities; weather and; work and

employers, fairness rules and

endangered species

endowment effect; and thinking like a trader

energy, mental

engagement

Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding, An (Hume)

entrepreneurs; competition neglect by

Epley, Nick

Epstein, Seymour

equal-weighting schemes

Erev, Ido

evaluability hypothesis

evaluations: joint; joint vs. single; single

evidence: one-sided; of witnesses

executive control

expectation principle

expectations

expected utility theory, see utility theory

experienced utility

experience sampling

experiencing self; well-being of; see also well-being

expert intuition; evaluating; illusions of validity of; overconfidence and; as recognition; risk assessment and; vs. statistical predictions; trust in

expertise, see skill

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (Tetlock)

Exxon Valdez oil spill

eyes, pupil dilation in

 

 

face reading

fairness

fallacies; conjunction; narrative; planning; sunk-cost

familiarity

Far Side, The (Larson)

fast and frugal heuristic

fast thinking

fatigue

fear

Fechner, Gustav

feedback

Feller, William

financial crisis of 2008

fi

nancial advisers and forecasters

firefighters

first impressions

Fischhoff, Baruch

flight instructors

flood monitor

Florida effect

flow

flowers syllogism

Flyvbjerg, Bent

focus

focusing illusion

fonts

forecasts, see predictions and forecasts

football game

Ford Motor Company

formulas; algorithms; Apgar scores; hostility to; for interviews; multiple regression

formulation effects

Fortune

fourfold pattern; in legal cases

Fox, Craig

Fox, Seymour

frames, framing; in Asian disease problem; in child exemption problem; in disclosures; emotional; fuel economy and; good; in KEEP-LOSE study; organ donation and; regulations on; in survival-mortality experiment; in ticket problem

Frederick, Shane

Freedman, David

freedom

Free to Choose (Friedman)

frequency representation

Frey, Bruno

Friedman, Milton

frowning; availability heuristic and; representativeness and

 

 

gains

Galinsky, Adam

Gallup-Healthways Well-Being Index

Galton, Francis

gambles; bundling of; certainty effect and; emotional framing in; loss aversion in; lottery; mixed; and outcomes produced by action vs. inaction; possibility effect and; psychological value of; regret and; simple; St. Petersburg paradox and; vs. sure things; utility ongsv> see also risk assessment

Gates Foundation

Gawande, Atul

Georgellis, Yannis

German Socio-Economic Panel

gestures

Gibbs, Lois

Gigerenzer, Gerd

Gilbert, Daniel

Gilovich, Tom

Gladwell, Malcolm

global warming

glucose

goals

golf

good and bad, distinctions between

Google

gorilla experiment

gossip

Gottman, John

Gould, Stephen Jay

grades and grade point averages (GPAs)

grading students’ essays

Grether, David

group, joining

Guthrie, Chris

 

 

Haidt, Jonathan

halo effect

Halo Effect, The (Rosenzweig)

happiness; of Californians; dating question and; income and; life stories and; marriage and; mood heuristic for; see also well-being happy faces

happy words

Harding, Warren G.

Harvard Medical School

Harvard University

health: disease threats and; well-being and; risks and; see also medicine

health survey problem

health violation penalties

Hebrew University of Jerusalem

“Hedgehog and the Fox, The” (Berlin)

hedonimeter

Heider, Fritz

helping experiment

Hertwig, Ralph

Hess, Eckhard

heuristic, definition of

high school curriculum team

hindsight: bias in; regret and

historical events

hitchhiker question

Hitler, Adolf

Hogarth, Robin

honesty box

“How Mental Systems Believe” (Gilbert)

How to Solve It (Pólya)

Hsee, Christopher

hubris hypothesis

Humans and Econs

Hume, David

hunger

hypotheses, testing

 

ideomotor effect

illusions: cognitive, see cognitive illusions; Müller-Lyer; 3-D

imaginability, immediate gratification

incongruity

independent judgments

indifference map

inheritances

injection puzzle

In Search of Excellence (Peters and Waterman)

inside view

insurance

intelligence; in marriage; pretentious language and

intensity matching

intention

interviews; in Israeli Defense Forces

Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation (Bentham)

intuition: acquisiitiodution of; common use of word; of experts, see expert intuition; predictive, see predictions and forecasts; as recognition; Simon’s definition of

Inventor’s Assistance Program

investments: stock portfolios; sunk-cost fallacy and

Invisible Gorilla, The (Chabris and Simons)

irrationality

Israel, bombings in

Israeli Defense Forces: flight instructors in; interviews in; leaderless group challenge in

Israeli Ministry of Education

 

“Jabberwocky” (Carroll)

Jacoby, Larry

Jencks, Christopher

joint evaluations; single evaluations vs.

judgment heuristics

Judgment in Managerial Decision Making (Bazerman)

judgments; basic assessments in; of experts, see expert intuition; intensity matching in; mental shotgun in; predictive, see predictions and forecasts; sets and prototypes in; summary, of complex information; see also decisions, decision making

“Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases” (Tversky and Kahneman)

Julie problem

jumping to conclusions; bias for belief and confirmation in; halo effect in, see halo effect; suppression of ambiguity and doubt in; WYSIATI in, see what you see is all there is

 

Kaye, Danny

keeping score; mental accounts and; regret and; responsibility and

KEEP-LOSE study

kidney cancer

Killing Ground, The

kitchen renovations

Klein, Gary

Knetsch, Jack

know, use of word

knowledge; reconstruction of past states of

kouros

Krueger, Alan

Kunreuther, Howard

Kuran, Timur

 

labor negotiations

Lady Macbeth effect

language, complex vs. simple

Larrick, Richard

Larson, Gary

law, see legal cases law of large numbers

law of small numbers; and bias of confidence over doubt

laziness of System 2

Layard, Richard

leaderless group challenge

leadership and business practices; at Google

LeBoeuf, Robyn

legal cases: civil, damages in; DNA evidence in; fourfold pattern and; frivolous; loss aversion in; malpractice; outcome bias in

leisure time

less-is-more pattern

Lewis, Michael

libertarian policies

Lichtenstein, Sarah

life: evaluation of; stories in; satisfaction in; thinking about

Linda problem

List, John

loans

logarithmic functions

loss aversion; in animals; enhanced; goals as reference points in; in legal decisions; status quo and

loss aversion ratio

losses

lotteries

Lovallo, Dan

Love Canal

luck

lying

 

Malkiel, Burton

Malmendier, Ulrike

malpractice litigation

Mao Zedong

march of historyuote>

Markowitz, Harry

marriage; life satisfaction and

Mathematical Psychology (Dawes, Tversky, and Coombs)

matter, relation of mind to

McFarland, Cathy

media, availability heuristic and

medical school admissions

medical survey problem

medicine; expertise in; malpractice litigation; overconfidence in; physicians; unique cases in; unusual treatments in

Mednick, Sarnoff

Meehl, Paul

meetings

memory, memories; associative, see associative memory; availability heuristic and, see availability; duration neglect in; experienced utility and; illusions of; and the remembering self; of vacations

mental accounts

mental effort, see effort mental energy

mental shotgun

mere exposure effect

messages, persuasive

metaphors

Michigan/Detroit problem

Michigan State University

Michotte, Albert

Miller, Dale

mind, relation of matter to

Mischel, Walter

miswanting

MIT

money and wealth: cultural differences in attitudes toward; happiness and; income vs. leisure; mental accounts and; poverty; priming and; utility of

Moneyball (Lewis)

mood, see emotions and mood Morgenstern, Oskar

Moses illusion

motivation

movies

“MPG Illusion, The” (Larrick and Soll)

mug experiments

Mullainathan, Sendhil

Müller-Lyer illusion

multiple regression

Mussweiler, Thomas

mutual funds

 

 

names: complicated; of famous people

narrative fallacy

narrow framing; disposition effect

Naturalistic Decision Making (NDM)

negativity dominance

negotiations

neuroeconomics

New York Times, The

New York University

9/11

Nisbett, Richard

Nixon, Richard

Nobel Prize

norms

norm theory

novelty

Nudge (Thaler and Sunstein)

nutrition

 

 

Oakland A’s

Obama, Barack

obesity

Odean, Terry

Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs

one-sided evidence

Oppenheimer, Danny

optimal experience

optimism; in CEOs; resilience and

optimistic bias; competition neglect; in entrepreneurs; overconfidence; planning fallacy; premortem and; risk taking and

Oregon Research Institute

organ donation

organizations

outcome bias

outside view

 

 

ou>

pain; chronic; cold-hand experiment and; colonoscopies and; duration neglect and; injection puzzle and; memory of; operation experiment and; peak-end rule and; in rats

paraplegics

parole

past: and confusing experiences with memories; hindsight bias and; regret and

pastness

pattern seeking

Pavlov, Ivan

peak-end rule

persuasive messages

physicians; malpractice litigation and

piano playing and weight, measuring

plane crashes

planning fallacy; mitigating

plausibility

pleasure; in rats

Plott, Charles

poignancy

political experts

political preference

Pólya, George

Pope, Devin

Porras, Jerry I.

positive test strategy

possibility effect: gambles and; threats and

post-traumatic stress

poverty

precautionary principle

predictability, insensitivity to

predictions and forecasts; baseline; clinical vs. statistical; disciplining; of experts, see expert intuition; extreme, value of; formulas for, see formulas; increasing accuracy in; low-validity environments and; nonregressive; objections to moderating; optimistic bias in; outside view in; overconfidence in; planning fallacy and; short-term trends and; valid, illusion of; see also probability

preference reversals; unjust

premonition, use of word

premortem

pretentiousness language

pricing policies

priming; anchoring as

t="-5%">

Princeton University

probability; base rates in, see base rates; decision weights and, see decision weights; definitions of; and disciplining intuition; less-is-more pattern and; Linda problem and; overestimation of; plausibility and; and predicting by representativeness; prior, insensitivity to; professional stereotypes and; of rare events, see rare events; representativeness and, see representativeness; similarity and; subjective; as sum-like variable; see also predictions and forecasts

probability neglect

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

professional stereotypes

professorial candidates

prospect theory; in Albert and Ben problem; blind spots of; cumulative; decision weights and probabilities in; fourfold pattern in; frames and; graph of losses and gains in; loss aversion in; reference points in

“Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk” (Kahneman and Tversky)

prototypes

psychiatric patients

psychological immune system

psychology, teaching

psychopathic charm

psychophysics

psychotherapists

pundits; see also expert intuition punishments: altruistic; rewards and; self-administered

pupil dilation

 

questionnaire and gift experiments

questions; substitution of, see substitution

 

Rabin, Matthew

radiologists

rafters, skilled

rail projects

randomness and chance; misconceptions of Random Walk Down Wall Street, A (Malkiel)

rare events; overestimation of; regret and

rational-agent model

rationality

Rationality and the Reflective Mind (Stanovich)

">rats

Reagan, Ronald

reciprocal priming

recognition

recognition-primed decision (RPD) model

Redelmeier, Don

reference class forecasting

regression to the mean; causal interpretations and; correlation and; difficulty in grasping; two-systems view of

“Regression towards Mediocrity in Hereditary Stature” (Galton)

regret

religion

remembering self

Remote Association Test (RAT)

reorganizations in companies

repetition

representativeness; base rates and; see also base rates; in Linda problem; predicting by; professional stereotypes and; sins of; in Tom W problem

research: artifacts in; hypothesis testing in; optimism in

resemblance; in predictions

resilience

responsibility

retrievability of instances

reversals; unjust

rewards; self-administered

Rice, Condoleezza

risk assessment; aggregation and; broad framing in; decision weights in, see decision weights; denominator neglect and; by experts; and format of risk expression; fourfold pattern in; for health risks; hindsight bias and; laws and regulations governing; loss aversion in; narrow framing in; optimistic bias and; policies for; possibility effect and; precautionary principle and; probability neglect and; public policies and; small risks and; of technologies; terrorism and; see also gambles

risk aversion

risk seeking

“Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making, The” (Dawes)

Rosett, Richard

Rosenzweig, Philip

Royal Dutch Shell

Royal Institution

Rozin, Paul

< Philip

Rumsfeld, Donald

Russell Sage Foundation

Russia

 

Saddam Hussein

sadness

safety; health risks and; health violation penalties and; precautionary principle and

samples, sampling: accidents of; and bias of confidence over doubt; law of large numbers; law of small numbers; size of; small, exaggerated faith in

Samuelson, Paul

San Francisco Exploratorium

Savage, Jimmie

Save More Tomorrow

Schelling, Thomas

Schkade, David

school size

Schwarz, Norbert

Schweitzer, Maurice

Science

Scientific American

scientific controversies

scientific research: artifacts in; hypothesis testing in; optimism in

Scottish Parliament

self-control

self-criticism

Seligman, Martin

selves; experiencing; remembering

sets

Shafir, Eldar

similarity judgments

Simmel, Mary-Ann

Simon, Herbert

Simons, Daniel

Simpson, O. J.

single evaluations; joint evaluations vs.

ski jump event

skills; acquisition of; environment of; feedback and practice in; illusions of; in stock-picking

Slovic, Paul

Slovic, Roz

slow thinking

<="0>

smiles, in face reading

smiling; availability heuristic and

Smith, Vernon

socializing

social science

Soll, Jack

somatic marker hypothesis

soul

Sources of Power (Klein)

Soviet Union

Spinoza, Baruch

Sports Illustrated

Stalin, Joseph

Standard & Poor’s (S&P)

Stanford University

Stanovich, Keith

statistics and statistical thinking; and accidents of sampling; base rates and, see base rates; Bayesian; and bias of confidence over doubt; causes and; chance in; deciding on size of sample; extreme outcomes and; faith in small samples; law of large numbers; law of small numbers; sample size decisions and; see also probability

status quo, defending

Steiger, James H.

stereotypes; causal; about professions

Steve the librarian

stock market

stock picking

stock portfolios

stock trading, insider

Stone, Arthur

stories, life

St. Petersburg paradox

Strack, Fritz

strangers, assessment of

Strangers to Ourselves (Wilson)

Streep, Meryl

strength, assessments of

structured settlements

Stumbling to Happiness (Gilbert)

substitution; and mood heuristic for happiness; and 3-D heuristic

success, uot

sum-like variables

sunk-cost fallacy

Sunstein, Cass

Super Bowl

supply and demand

surgeons

Surowiecki, James

surprise

survey and gift experiments

survival-mortality experiment

symbols

System 1; characteristics of; conflict between System 2 and

System 2; conflict between System 1 and; laziness of

 

Taleb, Nassim

talent

task sets

task switching

Tate, Geoffrey

taxes; child exemptions and

temperament

temptation

Tenet, George

terrorism

Tetlock, Philip

Thaler, Richard

theory-induced blindness

therapists

thinking like a trader

Thomas, Lewis

threats; possibility effect and

3-D heuristic

tickets; buying and selling of; sunk cost in

time; use of

time pressure

Todorov, Alex

token experiment

Tom W problem

“Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth” (Barber and Odean)

transactions and trades

Traviata, La (Verdi)